SBP sees forex reserves at $25bn by June 2027

The State Bank of Pakistan expects foreign exchange reserves to reach $23 billion by December 2026 and $25 billion by June 2027, up from $21.5 billion currently, Governor Jameel Ahmad said on Monday. Mettis Global reported his remarks after the central bank lifted its policy rate by 50 basis points to 12%. The governor said reserves had dropped below $3 billion in February 2023 before recovering, with the increase driven mainly by purchases of dollars in the market.

Ahmad said external debt had grown by only $5-6 billion over four years and described continued reserve accumulation as important for economic stability. He also projected GDP growth of 3.5-4.5%, citing stronger prospects for sugar, rice and maize crops than for cotton, alongside an improved overall agricultural outlook and better fiscal buffers. A Mettis Global survey showed 58.7% of respondents expected a rate increase, while 41.3% anticipated no change; 44.4% specifically predicted a 50-basis-point rise.