Global vegetable oil prices seen rising on tighter supply, says analyst Mielke

Business Recorder reported that global vegetable oil prices could rise through 2027, as Black Sea sunflower oil shipments are disrupted and South American soyoil exports fall. Thomas Mielke, executive director of Hamburg-based forecaster Oil World, spoke at the Globoil event in Mumbai on Thursday. He said India, the world's largest importer of edible oils, could be among those most affected and might need to step up palm oil purchases if Black Sea cargoes stay held up.

Mielke estimated that Russian and Ukrainian sunflower oil cargoes could fall 300,000 to 350,000 metric tons short of potential each month from October unless a safe shipping corridor is set up. Last week, India cut its base duty on crude sunflower oil from 10% to zero. Attacks by both Russia and Ukraine on Black Sea ports in recent weeks have hampered loading of grain and vegetable oil shipments.

Mielke also noted that South American soyoil exports are past their seasonal high and are expected to slow from October. He added that slower growth in global oils and fats output has left supply struggling to meet demand, especially for biodiesel, given higher energy prices. Mielke said palm oil has turned more attractive after a recent price correction, which should prompt importers such as India to buy more while they swap out sunflower oil. He linked that demand to firmer palm prices into 2027.