SBP expected to raise policy rate by 50bps as MPC meets today

The State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee is meeting on Monday, October 26, and market participants largely expect an increase in the benchmark rate. Profit by Pakistan Today reported that Topline Securities’ survey found 61% of respondents anticipate a rise, while 39% expect the rate to stay unchanged. The committee last held the rate at 11.5% on September 14, 2026.

A 50-basis-point increase was the most common forecast, selected by 54% of respondents; 7% expected a 100-basis-point adjustment. Topline Securities also expects a 50-basis-point rise, citing inflation risks and external pressures, and estimates average FY27 inflation of 9% to 9.5% with Brent crude near $100 per barrel. Its assessment puts the real rate at about 200 to 250 basis points at the current policy rate, while inflation over the next 12 months is projected above 8.5%, higher than the SBP’s 5% to 7% medium-term target.