World Bank sees commodity prices up 23% in 2026 due to Middle East war, other shocks

The World Bank expects global commodity prices to climb 23% in 2026, citing energy-cost increases and shipping interruptions linked to conflicts in the Middle East and Black Sea, alongside demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Its twice-yearly outlook says prices could fall 7% in 2027, though further disruptions and a severe El Niño could keep food costs high and add to inflation pressures.

Energy prices rose 32% this year, while global oil supply is forecast to contract 5.2%, the largest decline in four decades outside the 2020 recession. Brent is projected to average $92 a barrel in 2026; food prices are expected to increase by just over 10%, fertilizer by 14%, metals by 25% and precious metals by 40%. The bank also warned that a combination of worsening shocks could push food prices 12% above its baseline outlook.