World Bank projects fertiliser prices to ease in 2027 after 14% rise

The World Bank expects fertiliser prices worldwide to climb by an average of 14% in 2026, then retreat in 2027, Profit by Pakistan Today reported. Its October outlook puts urea at $510 per tonne this year, up 20.6% from 2025, before projecting declines to $429 in 2027 and $368 in 2028. DAP is forecast to rise 7.3% to $735 per tonne in 2026, followed by falls to $602 and $501 in the next two years.

The report attributes this year’s increase partly to Middle Eastern supply interruptions and higher costs for energy and production inputs. Fertiliser prices fell 22% in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter, as expanded Chinese urea shipments helped restore supply; DAP prices, by contrast, rose 4%. The World Bank sees prices returning close to 2025 levels next year if energy becomes cheaper and access to ammonia and sulphur improves, while geopolitical tensions and export curbs remain risks to that outlook.