Inflation projected at 10.5% in October FY27

Pakistan’s Finance Division expects October 2026 inflation to reach 9.5% to 10.5%, according to its monthly outlook reported by Mettis Global. The projection follows September’s 10.3% annual CPI increase, down from 11.1% in August, while the July-September average was 10.2%. The division said energy costs, food availability and comparison effects will influence the coming inflation path.

The report describes improving external conditions, including remittances of $10.9bn and total liquid reserves of $26.8bn, alongside a current account deficit that widened to $874mn in July-September. The central bank raised its policy rate by 50 basis points to 12.0%, citing inflation risks from global energy prices and Middle East tensions. KSE-100 fell 7,006 points during September, while automobile production and cement dispatches rose in the first quarter.