IMF forecasts 1.3% contraction in Pakistan, 6.6% growth in 2027

The Express Tribune reported on October 22 that the IMF expects Pakistan’s economy to contract by 1.3% this year and grow by 6.6% in 2027. The figures come amid a wider forecast for the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan, whose combined output the IMF expects to shrink because of the conflict’s effects on energy production, shipping, tourism, trade and confidence.

The Fund’s baseline assumes the conflict will ease in early 2027 and trade will gradually return to normal over the year, though it cautioned that uncertainty remains exceptionally high. Further disruption to energy output and trade routes could push energy prices higher, while tighter external financial conditions could also weigh on the outlook. The IMF urged policymakers to protect price stability and fiscal sustainability, preserve central bank independence and pursue reforms to raise productivity and employment.