September CPI seen at 10.39%

Mettis Global expects Pakistan's headline inflation to fall to 10.39% year on year in September 2026, down from 11.1% in August, though it would stay in double digits. The estimate points to a monthly rise of about 1.1%, as higher electricity, petroleum and transport costs outweigh a fall in perishable food prices.

Electricity prices rose after a fuel charges adjustment of Rs2.06 per kWh was applied, compared with Rs0.75 per kWh in August, and a quarterly tariff adjustment of Rs0.52 per unit was added. Retail petroleum rates also climbed as international oil prices stayed elevated and global energy supply was disrupted. Brokerage estimates compiled by Mettis Global put the average September forecast at 10.22%, with individual forecasts ranging from about 9.3% to 10.5%.

The State Bank of Pakistan kept its policy rate at 11.5% on September 14 and expects inflation to return toward a 5 to 7% medium-term target by June 2027, provided supply shocks do not become persistent. Mettis Global notes that the high base from last year should keep offering statistical relief in coming months. Risks linked to oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb remain a concern for the outlook.