SBP policy rate decision October 2026: survey forecasts show hike expectations

The State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) October 2026 policy rate decision was not reported in the available material by 12:45 PKT on Monday, October 26. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was meeting that day, with its decision due later on October 26.

The policy rate was 11.5% before the meeting. At its previous meeting on September 14, the MPC left the rate unchanged. Two surveys published on October 26 showed more respondents expecting an increase than a hold, although their reported shares differed.

In one survey, 61% of participants anticipated a rate increase and 39% expected the rate to remain unchanged. Across all respondents, 54% forecast a 50-basis-point rise and 7% a 100-basis-point rise.

A separate survey covering responses gathered from October 21 to 24 found 58.7% expected an increase and 41.3% expected the rate to stay at 11.5%. A 50-basis-point move was the most frequent increase forecast, while 1.6% expected a rise greater than 100 basis points.

Respondents in the second survey also identified risks to the economic outlook. Rising global oil prices were named by 47.6% as the biggest threat over the next six months, while 38.1% cited geopolitical tensions. The survey also found 55.0% expected average FY27 CPI inflation to exceed 9%.