Indian shares set for muted start as US rate relief meets Middle East caution

Business Recorder reported that Indian equities were on course for a subdued opening on Thursday. Calmer expectations of a United States rate hike, following a mild inflation reading, were offset by a lack of progress toward Middle East peace. GIFT Nifty futures traded at 24,446 points by 7:18 a.m. IST, signalling a flat open after the Nifty 50 closed at 24,435.95 on Tuesday. Stock-specific moves were also expected to draw attention due to MSCI's index rebalancing and the earnings season.

U.S. consumer prices barely rose in July, which lowered the chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase next month after weak jobs data last week. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan climbed 1%, with South Korean shares leading with a 4.4% gain after the inflation release. Lower American rates can weaken Treasury yields and the dollar, making emerging market stocks like India more appealing to overseas investors.

India's retail inflation rose to 4.45% in July, yet the central bank is still unlikely to raise rates in the months ahead. Oil prices fell 1% as forecasters cut 2026 global demand estimates because of the Iran war, though supply constraints limited the drop. Brent crude eased below $89 per barrel, while HST Wealth's founder, Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, said the unresolved Strait of Hormuz situation keeps energy risk premiums elevated.