Earning S&P, Moody's next upgrade

The Express Tribune published a column by an independent economic analyst calling on Pakistan to adopt a defined sovereign rating goal: S&P at B+ within two years and Moody's at B1 in a three-to-five-year window. The writer notes that S&P upgraded the country to B during July 2026, while Moody's still rates it Caa1, a level in place since August 2025. Reaching those levels would take one more S&P notch and three more Moody's notches, and Pakistan would still sit below investment grade.

The writer credits Pakistan with avoiding default, but argues ratings rest on durable institutions rather than diplomacy. The fiscal record is presented as the strongest evidence, with the deficit, measured against output, dropping from 7.9% in FY22 to a provisional 2.6% in FY26 and the primary balance in surplus since FY24. Current outlays were trimmed to Rs20.69 trillion in FY26 from Rs21.53 trillion, though the column says State Bank profit and a negative statistical discrepancy boosted the headline figures.

The column urges public-private partnerships for dams, roads, airports and universities, funded by banks, pension funds and insurers. It also wants the NFC award to move weight from population toward own revenue, health and school outcomes. Cutting the effective cost of Rs59.5 trillion in domestic debt by two to three points, once the portfolio reprices, would yield Rs1.2 trillion to Rs1.8 trillion a year.