Global shocks, IPO wave could temper India's earnings-led market revival, Abakkus Investment says

Business Recorder reported that Abakkus Investment Managers sees solid profit growth at Nifty 50 firms as supportive for domestic equities, but weaker global risk appetite and a crowded primary market could restrain a broader rally.

So far this year, the Sensex has slipped 9.8% and the Nifty 50 has dropped 7.9%, weighed by costlier oil and a record $25 billion of foreign outflows. South Korea and Taiwan have each gained roughly half over the same period, highlighting India's lag.

Abakkus, which manages $5.2 billion in assets, cites elevated crude prices, rising global bond yields and volatility in AI-linked trading as key external risks. Aman Chowhan, head of equities for the firm's alternates business, told Reuters that domestic demand and profits look strong while global conditions do not. He expects India to beat emerging and Asian rivals following a poor first half, though global sentiment will still set the direction. Share issuance is another constraint, with IPOs, placements and block deals competing for limited capital. 27 mainboard IPOs brought in 225.72 billion Indian rupees ($2.36 billion) in the opening six months of 2026, and a crowded August pipeline points to more supply. Chowhan estimates 40 to 50 per cent of capital could be absorbed, while Abakkus favours niche NBFCs and mid-sized banks on stronger credit growth. Foreign investors are expected to return only gradually after a long stretch of weak returns in financials and IT.