Indian rupee spins wheels in thin band, shorts await fresh entry points

Business Recorder reported that the Indian rupee moved within a narrow band on Thursday, as global cues had little effect while the Reserve Bank of India kept intervening to steady the currency. The rupee finished at 95.7050 per dollar, a marginal gain from 95.7525 in the previous session.

Speculative trading onshore remains restricted by central bank caps on net open positions, and a Mumbai-based bank trader said the bias still points to further depreciation. Participants wanting to buy dollars against the rupee are waiting for larger declines before entering, the trader added. A London hedge fund trader said offshore players also leaned bearish.

Most Asian currencies gained as the dollar weakened broadly, yet the rupee's bearish tilt persisted, while Brent crude futures climbed over 2% to $93.8. US President Donald Trump warned of economic consequences for any country offering a lifeline to Iran as Washington seeks to end a war it began with Israel nearly six months ago. ANZ analysts said prolonged high oil prices could push India's medium-term inflation toward 5%, with a chance of breaching 6%, the upper limit of the RBI's tolerance band, and still expect a first 25-basis-point rate hike in December 2026. They added that the timing depends on energy markets and monsoon risks.