August inflation seen jumping to 11%

According to The Express Tribune, Growth Securities expects Pakistan's headline inflation to reach 11.0% in August 2026 on a yearly basis, up from 3.0% a year earlier. The forecast points to a 1.0% monthly rise in the consumer price index, following a 0.6% monthly decline in August 2025. The brokerage linked the jump to food prices, along with higher petrol and HSD rates.

Within food, the monthly index is put at about 0.7%, driven by seasonal rises in essentials. Onion led the increases with a gain of roughly 68%, while chicken rose 9%, pulse gram 8% and wheat around 3%. Transport is also expected to add to inflation, as petrol costs Rs339.33 per litre after a 7.6% increase and diesel reached Rs364.90 following a 6.7% rise.

Housing costs may partly offset the rise, as electricity charges are projected to fall 7.3%, although LPG prices rose 1.2% in the month. The forecast also sees real interest rates reaching about 0.5% in August after turning positive in June and July. The report suggests the State Bank of Pakistan's Monetary Policy Committee will keep the policy rate at 11.5% at its September 14, 2026 meeting.