Trade policies: a barrier to prosperity

A column in The Express Tribune argues that Pakistan's limited role in global commerce is holding back prosperity. Citing World Bank data, the writer says exports of goods and services rose above $40 billion in 2025, a record, while imports reached $70 billion. Yet exports have scarcely reached 10% of GDP recently, with imports near 20%, a gap policymakers now see as the greatest danger to economic security.

The writer traces the weakness back to the 1990s. Exports were 16.2% of GDP in 1995 while imports reached 19.4%. Sanctions linked to the 1998 nuclear tests and a 1999 change of government were followed by export shares falling below 10%. Globally, the average export share rose from 19.4% in 1992 to over 30% in 2022.

Tariffs sit at the centre of the argument. Average MFN rates fell from 42% in 1996 to 8.4% in 2023, yet remained above those of India, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia. Only about a quarter of imports are covered by regional trade agreements, mainly the Pakistan-China FTA, and gross fixed capital formation of 13% of GDP in 2025 trails regional averages. The National Tariff Policy 2025-2030 simplifies customs duty slabs, but the writer says non-tariff structural challenges must now be addressed.