Rs100 trillion in debt: should Pakistan be worried?

The Express Tribune published an opinion piece by a Senior Fellow at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, arguing that the Rs100 trillion debt figure alone says little about risk. According to the writer, the more useful questions concern how fast debt is growing, its size against the economy, its foreign currency exposure and the share of revenue going to interest. Read through those measures, the picture is more nuanced than the headline suggests.

The article cites government figures putting FY26 debt growth at around 7.7 per cent, reportedly the slowest pace in two decades, against an average of about 16 per cent previously. The debt-to-GDP ratio has reportedly eased to around 68 per cent from roughly 88 per cent five years ago. Interest payments have also fallen, from about 61 per cent of government revenue in FY24 to 35 per cent in FY26.

State Bank reserves are reported to have risen to $18.5 billion from about $3 billion three and a half years earlier, lifting import cover to roughly three months. The article says this remains below a comfortable level but has strengthened external payment capacity. It also notes that average domestic debt maturity has lengthened to more than 3.8 years, while the external debt share has dropped to 31 per cent, though bilateral rollovers remain a vulnerability.