Next crisis is growth, not dollars

An international economist writing in The Express Tribune argues that Pakistan's central challenge has moved from preventing crises to sustaining growth. The column notes that the fiscal position has improved, inflation is more contained and reserves have been rebuilt, with the IMF recognising solid execution of the ongoing reform agenda. The writer then asks what happens after stabilisation, pointing to a familiar pattern in which faster growth pulls up imports and pressures the rupee.

Using the latest figures, the piece reports a current-account surplus of $72 million in July-March of FY2026 and remittances of $41.6 billion for the year. Goods exports for that period stood at $22.7 billion against imports of $50.7 billion, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey. The writer argues that remittances and external financing cover the gap but cannot replace a competitive export economy, so policy must move beyond managing scarcity.