Thai July exports rise 21.6% y/y, beating forecast as factory output rises

Business Recorder reported that shipments leaving Thailand, measured on a customs-cleared basis, grew 21.6% year on year in July, per the commerce ministry. That pace beat the 17.75% rise that a Reuters poll had anticipated, and it came after a 20.8% gain in the month before.

Imports climbed faster, rising 36.7% on the year, which narrowed the trade deficit to $3.61 billion against the $5.38 billion gap analysts had expected. Shipments to the United States, Thailand's leading market, surged 45.3%, while sales to China increased 15.2%. Factory output also outpaced forecasts, with the manufacturing production index up 0.46% from a year earlier after a poll had pointed to a 1.0% drop.

The commerce ministry now expects exports to grow by more than 11% this year, lifted from an earlier estimate of 8%, citing rising demand for technology and AI-related products. Exports rose 18.2% over the first seven months of 2026, while the industry ministry trimmed its full-year factory output forecast to 0.25% from a previous range of 1.0% to 2.0%.