Peak power is getting pricier

National grid generation rose to 14.5 billion units in July, 6 percent higher than a year earlier, according to Business Recorder. Measured over a trailing 12-month window, growth is a slimmer 2.8 percent, so the monthly jump points to a firmer pickup rather than a sustained surge in consumption. Hourly data also show evening demand sitting far above the levels recorded in 2024 and 2025.

Industrial users moving back from captive generation, together with rooftop solar trimming daytime grid demand, have made the climb after sunset steeper. Hydel supplied nearly 6 billion units, roughly 40 percent of output and its highest monthly total on record, while RLNG held around 11 percent and stayed about 12 percent below reference for a fifth straight month. Imported coal ran 144 percent above reference and added more than 1.2 billion extra units, also a monthly record.

Peak-hour marginal cost reached Rs46 per unit in July, far above the levels of the previous two years, while RLNG generation averaged Rs47 per unit, an all-time high. The July fuel cost adjustment is expected to exceed Rs2 per unit, adding pressure on consumers after several months of moderate adjustments. August and September typically bring the highest demand of the year, and the geopolitical disruption affecting LNG supplies and prices has no clear end in sight.