IMF review: Pakistan expected to meet all targets, says AHL

Arif Habib Limited said on Saturday that Pakistan should meet almost all seven Quantitative Performance Criteria set under its ongoing IMF programme before the next review, which falls later this month. The brokerage's report, titled Pakistan's Economic Outlook, pointed to one data point that has not yet been made public. Meeting these hard benchmarks would make the review smoother, according to the report.

A staff mission is set to arrive next month to cover the fourth EFF review and the second RSF review. In May, the IMF board approved disbursements of about $1.1 billion from the EFF and $220 million from the RSF, bringing the cumulative figure to around $4.8 billion. AHL argued that timing matters more here than new funds, since the review is meant to show consistent implementation.

The Federal Board of Revenue came up Rs1.1 trillion short of its fiscal 2026 collection goal, which had been set at Rs14.1 trillion. AHL warned that a repeat shortfall would strain the FY27 fiscal position, and its forecasts show the fiscal deficit widening to 3.9% of GDP next year from 2.6%. Business Recorder earlier reported that the IMF mission will assess January-June 2026 performance, start talks on the next tranche, and look at tax collection, energy reforms and privatisation.