Pakistan economy set to sustain recovery momentum in FY27

Mettis Global reported that the Finance Division expects Pakistan's economy to keep its upward trajectory over the months ahead, according to its monthly economic outlook for August 2026. The division cited improving macroeconomic indicators, disciplined fiscal management and a steady financial environment as the basis for that view. It also noted that inflation may stay elevated for a time as recent price changes and shifts in global commodity and energy markets feed through to the domestic economy.

The fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.6% of GDP in FY2026, its lowest level in over two decades, while the primary surplus reached 2.9% of GDP. Large Scale Manufacturing grew 4.98% during the same year. In July 2026, workers' remittances climbed 13% year-on-year to $3.63bn, and goods exports rose 9.4% to $3.01bn, according to the State Bank of Pakistan.

IT exports reached $417mn in July 2026, up 17.8% year-on-year, after record earnings of around $4.6bn in FY2026. Moody's lifted the country's rating to B3 from Caa1 in August and kept the outlook stable. The report flagged ongoing risks from geopolitical uncertainty and worldwide energy prices, with possible implications for the external account.