IMF projects stronger 3% global growth for 2026, warns risks remain

According to Mettis Global, the International Monetary Fund now sees global growth around 3% in 2026, but it warns the world remains exposed to several risks. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva spoke at a G20 meeting involving finance ministers and central bank heads in Asheville, North Carolina, where policymakers broadly agreed on lifting potential growth. She listed an unfinished energy shock, high public debt and stalled disinflation among the main concerns.

Georgieva said the world economy weathered the energy supply disruption more smoothly than anticipated, thanks to strategic oil and gas stockpiles, alternative energy and demand management. Investment tied to artificial intelligence also supported activity, especially in the United States, while power infrastructure spending linked to AI electricity needs became another source of growth. However, she cautioned that the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, reserves will eventually need refilling, and global averages conceal wide differences between nations.

On debt, she said public borrowing has reached almost 100% of global GDP, surpassing the highs of the period after World War II, and keeps rising. She called for credible medium-term fiscal plans, restructuring where debt is unsustainable and greater transparency, citing Ecuador and Pakistan as cases where the IMF-World Bank Three-Pillar Approach worked. Excess imbalances unexplained by fundamentals widened in 2025, according to the IMF's External Sector Report, and the fund wants both surplus and deficit economies to act.