Why has oil stayed below $100 a barrel despite supply disruptions amid US-Iran escalation?

Dawn reported that Brent crude rose this month but stayed under $100 a barrel, even as the US-Iran conflict escalation disrupted Gulf exports through Hormuz and the Red Sea. Argus put Middle East crude shipments at roughly 11 million barrels daily, compared with 18 million before the US and Israeli war on Iran, which started seven months earlier.

Rystad Energy's Claudio Galimberti said 8 million to 9 million barrels per day flowed through Hormuz in the week before fighting resumed on August 30. Flows have since fallen below 2 million barrels per day, though the 4 million to 5 million daily average still supports what he called a fair Brent price of $95. According to Kpler, no visible very large crude carrier has departed the strait since September 2.

Reuters data shows spot premiums are back at April levels, with November-loading cargoes from Dubai and Oman priced at a premium of $19 to $20 a barrel over Dubai benchmarks. Argus chief economist David Fyfe described the diesel market as facing a sharp shortage. Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 Brent forecast to $85 a barrel, citing shipping disruptions it expects to persist into next year.