IMF fourth review next major test

The Express Tribune reports that Pakistan's economic rebound now faces its first serious test as higher oil prices and renewed inflation put pressure on stability built over the past year. August inflation climbed to 11.15% from 9.20% in July, driven mainly by a 20.2% annual rise in the transport index after fuel prices were adjusted daily. With the real interest rate down to only 0.2 percentage points, the September 14 policy decision will be closely tied to Middle East developments and crude prices.

Other indicators were more encouraging: S&P Global raised Pakistan's sovereign rating to B from B-, with a stable outlook, citing stronger institutional stability and IMF-backed reforms. The country also raised a record $3 billion through Eurobonds, with orders nearing $6 billion. The next checkpoint is the IMF's fourth review of the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility, expected next month, and is likely to focus on structural conditions, including amendments to the Pakistan Sovereign Wealth Fund law.

For listed textile companies, AKD Securities expects 4QFY26 earnings to rise 47% year-on-year on 3% revenue growth, helped by stronger exports, wider gross margins of 16.3% and possible gains on Sindh cess provisions. The report keeps a positive stance on Interloop (ILP), Nishat Mills (NML) and Nishat Chunian (NCL), although the Middle East conflict could still hit export flows and shipping costs.