$44b remittance run-rate masks risks

Inflows from overseas Pakistanis reached about $7.3 billion over the opening two months of FY27, a 14.7 per cent rise from the $6.4 billion recorded a year earlier, according to The Express Tribune. The State Bank of Pakistan put August's remittances at $3.7 billion, up 16.5 per cent from August 2025 and slightly above July. Topline Securities expects FY27 inflows of $43.7 billion for the full year.

August did not set a monthly high, as May's $4.25 billion Eid peak remains the record. June came in at $3.47 billion and July at $3.63 billion, so a monthly floor of $3.5 to $3.7 billion now looks routine instead of unusual. Saudi Arabia still sent the most, $873.5 million, and the UAE added $749.8 million, together about 44 per cent of the month's total. Inflows from the UK climbed 22 per cent to $563.7 million, while the US sent $308.9 million.

The gains stand out because official incentives that had steered money through banks ended at the start of FY27, leaving lenders to cover roughly Rs2 per dollar from their own resources. Remittances now carry much of the load that exports would normally shoulder. That reliance on Saudi Arabia and the UAE is also a vulnerability, since a shock to those corridors would be hard to offset quickly with UK or US growth.