India's August retail inflation at 4.82% on-year

India's annual retail inflation rose to 4.82% in August, up from 4.45% in July, according to Business Recorder. The reading was slightly above the 4.80% that economists had forecast in a Reuters poll, and it marked a third consecutive month above the Reserve Bank of India's 4% medium-term target. Food and fuel costs were the main drivers, adding to the case for a possible rate increase in October.

The central bank kept its benchmark rate at 5.25% last month, yet minutes from its latest policy meeting showed that several officials, including Governor Sanjay Malhotra, favoured a hike if price pressures spread across categories. Oil prices have kept climbing for a month, with Brent futures hovering around $108 per barrel and adding to those concerns. Imports cover close to 85% of India's crude needs, and more than half arrive from the Middle East, an area affected by supply disruptions tied to the U.S.-Iran war.

Food inflation climbed to 5.95% in August from 5.52% in July, reflecting weak monsoon rains and sharp price rises for ginger, onion and garlic. Transport inflation also edged up, reaching 4.60% from 4.43% a month earlier. Regional peers such as Indonesia and the Philippines have already raised rates in response to energy costs and currency swings, which leaves India as an outlier.