SBP maintains monetary policy at 11.5%

The State Bank of Pakistan left its benchmark policy rate at 11.5 per cent after a Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Monday, matching most market forecasts, The Express Tribune reported. The hold marks the third straight meeting without a change, following a 100-basis-point increase in April, the first rate hike in nearly three years. The July meeting had also kept the rate unchanged.

JS Research had framed the meeting as a status quo with a caveat, warning that renewed Middle East tensions could bring a rate increase by the December quarter. The firm raised its FY27 inflation forecast by about 0.8 percentage points to around 9.1 per cent, mainly because oil prices are slower to return to normal. Headline inflation climbed to 11.1 per cent in August from 9.2 per cent in July, above the SBP's 5 to 7 per cent medium-term target.

Pakistan's external position looks firmer than a year earlier, with total liquid reserves near $23.7 billion as of September 4, including $18.3 billion held by the SBP. The monthly trade deficit averaged $3.3 billion over April to July 2026, up from $2.6 billion in 9MFY26, as imports climbed about 15 per cent while exports stayed flat. The next scheduled MPC meeting is on October 26.