Why record reserves are not worth celebrating yet

Mettis Global reported that the State Bank's foreign reserves reached $21.40 billion on September 18, the highest level on record and above the $20.07 billion peak seen in August 2021. According to the report, most of the recent increase came from borrowing rather than earnings. A $1.21 billion commercial loan in early September and $3.06 billion from a Eurobond, received a week later, together added $4.27 billion in about a fortnight.

Without those inflows, reserves would be about $17.13 billion, roughly $1.25 billion below the June 30 level. Momentum also faded once the loans stopped, with reserves up only $11 million in the week to September 18. The report also estimates the annual interest bill on the new notes at about $230 million, which last week's gain covered for around 18 days.

According to the report, the central bank buys dollars from local banks, yet reserves rose only $2.68 billion between July 2025 and May 2026 despite $7.26 billion of purchases. Remittances climbed $934 million to $7.29 billion in two months and absorbed nearly all of the widening trade gap, while higher crude prices lifted the petroleum bill by 23.6%. The report concludes that the reserve milestone becomes a real achievement only when the account grows without a fresh loan behind it.