Pakistan September inflation seen easing but energy pressures persist

Business Recorder reported that several brokerages see Pakistan's consumer inflation slowing to roughly 10% in September, compared with 11.15% in August. Projections range from 9.9% to 10.5% year-on-year, based on estimates from Topline Securities, Ismail Iqbal Securities, Abbasi and Company and Growth Securities. The brokers warned that higher fuel and power costs could keep inflation pressure high and complicate the central bank's policy path.

Topline Securities projects 10.25% to 10.3% year-on-year and a 1.3% monthly rise, with fuel prices seen up 6.5% during the month. Ismail Iqbal Securities puts the figure at 10.5% and says energy now drives a bigger share of the increase while food pressures have eased, with electricity charges rising 12.6%. Growth Securities forecasts 9.9%, noting petrol averaged Rs393.41 a litre after a 16.9% increase and high-speed diesel reached Rs423.47 after a 12.3% jump.

The State Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 11.5% this month, putting the central bank's stance under scrutiny. Ismail Iqbal Securities expects another hold at the October meeting and sees no rate change before the end of the calendar year, while Growth Securities expects a 50-100 bps increase at the October 26 meeting if fuel prices stay elevated. Growth Securities also expects inflation to hover between 9% and 10% until March 2027.