The Petrol Subsidy: Math?

Mettis Global tested the government's petrol relief figures against the scheme's own caps. Six million registered users claiming their full quota would cost about Rs12 billion a month if all rode motorcycles, or Rs18 billion if all drove small cars. Early data showed 1.75 million registrations and roughly Rs340 million in relief paid out by September 20, far below the claimed Rs35 to 40 billion a month.

The cost estimate has also moved sharply. On September 14 the ECC approved Rs75 billion, with a monthly cost put at Rs25 to 30 billion, while the ten-month figure now stands at Rs400 to 500 billion. The scheme has neither an end date nor a poverty test, and registration only checks a CNIC, SIM and vehicle record. Using a reported count of over 25 million motorcycles, the report puts full-quota claims for them at Rs50 billion a month.

The minister has said relief could last until the war ends, and Brent rose 3.29 per cent to $107.75 as US-Iran talks stalled. Mettis Global wants monthly publication of active claimants, redeemed tokens and actual payouts before any extension is approved. It argues that cushioning motorcyclists is a defensible goal, but an extension of Rs400 to 500 billion should not be approved on numbers that do not reconcile.