Russian oil supply to India tightens on reduced exports, strong Chinese demand

Business Recorder reported, citing four trade sources, that Indian refiners expect Russian crude deliveries to shrink further in October and November. Reduced exports and tough competition from China are behind the squeeze, leaving India to source costlier barrels over the remaining months.

India has been the leading buyer of seaborne Russian Urals crude since 2022, when Moscow redirected energy flows away from Europe at steep discounts. Recently, China has increased its purchases as Middle East supplies shrank amid the Iran war. Kpler figures show Russian arrivals in India are set to drop to roughly 1.75 million barrels a day in September, the lowest since April, after a 16.5% decline to about 2.1 million in August.

Drone attacks have repeatedly halted loadings at Novorossiysk, the Black Sea port, where shipments have roughly halved. Indian buyers have turned to pricier substitutes such as UAE Murban, Iraqi Basrah and Angolan cargoes, while Russian barrels increasingly head to China along the seasonal Arctic route. One trader said freight costs to China via that northern path are now roughly on par with Suez Canal routes, and that securing delivery matters more than price.