Consensus puts September inflation at 10.22%

According to Mettis Global, 13 brokerages expect Pakistan's September inflation to slow from August's pace. The mean projection stands at 10.22% year on year, with a median of 10.20%, compared with 11.1% in August. Analysts credit the drop largely to a high base from last year, a factor they expect to hold until November 2026.

On a monthly basis, the average increase is put at 1.11%, with a median of 1.10%. Brokerages describe a split across the basket, with energy-linked costs such as transport and power pushing prices up, while cheaper perishables offset part of the rise. Topline Securities, which sits at the high end of the forecasts, cites retail fuel costs rising 6.5% monthly and electricity costs up 9.58% monthly, linked to a higher fuel charges adjustment.

The State Bank of Pakistan kept its policy rate steady at 11.5% on September 14, with a 7 to 3 vote, and the brokerage consensus aligns closely with that view. Ismail Iqbal Securities expects the central bank to hold rates through the end of CY26, warning that energy shocks can feed into transport fares and core inflation. According to the brokerages, energy has replaced food as the main driver of the index this month.