Bought More, Kept Less

According to Mettis Global, the State Bank of Pakistan bought $841 million of dollars in June, up sharply from $154 million in May. Across FY26 the central bank's purchases totalled $8.10 billion, roughly $420 million more than in FY25. Yet the extra buying did not produce a matching gain in reserves, which rose by $3.87 billion compared with $5.12 billion a year earlier.

The share of each purchased dollar that stayed in reserves dropped from 67 cents in FY25 to 48 cents in FY26. Outflows, mostly used for repaying foreign loans, climbed by $1.67 billion in a single year to reach $4.23 billion. Mettis Global likens the situation to a bucket that fills more slowly when the drain at its base gets wider.

An earlier Mettis Global piece tied a record $21.4 billion in September reserves mainly to fresh loans. The June data came out roughly three months after that month closed, so July to September purchases remain unpublished. Early FY27 trade figures show exports up 7.04% to $5.46 billion, while imports rose 13.03% to $12.58 billion and pushed the trade deficit up 18.11% to $7.12 billion.