Inflation projected at 11% in September FY27

Mettis Global reported that inflation is projected to stay within 10-11% for September 2026, as higher global oil prices pass through into energy, transport and food costs. The outlook, drawn from the Finance Division's monthly economic update, also points to a broadening of activity in farming, factories and private lending. The division described dearer oil as the key hazard, weighing on household buying power, production expenses and the import bill.

The current account gap shrank to $543mn in July and August from $853mn a year earlier, even with a wider trade deficit. Workers' remittances rose 14.7% to $7.29bn, while foreign investment grew 80.2% to $562.2mn. Liquid reserves held by the SBP reached $21.39bn on September 18, helped by a $3.0bn Eurobond issuance.

Headline CPI inflation climbed to 11.1% year on year in August, up from 9.2% in July, with food alone contributing 4.9 percentage points. The Monetary Policy Committee kept the policy rate at 11.5% on September 14, citing crude prices as the main risk. The KSE-100 added 882 points during August, ending at 176,976, with market capitalization reaching Rs19,830.2bn.