Pakistan's last IMF bailout?

With the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility entering its final year, an Express Tribune opinion piece argues Pakistan has a real chance to break its cycle of IMF programmes. State Bank reserves have climbed to about $21.4 billion, covering roughly three months of imports, while total liquid reserves stand near $26.8 billion. The writer also points to a record $3 billion dual-tranche Eurobond in September, which drew almost $6 billion in orders.

Remittances climbed to a record high of $41.6 billion in fiscal 2026, up from $27.3 billion three years earlier, while services exports passed $10 billion, led by IT and digital services. Privatisation is also advancing: the PIA sale has ended a long deadlock, and the first three electricity distribution companies have reached investor engagement and transaction stages. However, merchandise exports have hovered between $25 and $32 billion for about 15 years, and the trade deficit has widened as imports keep rising.

The writer argues the coming year should be used to complete the current programme while treating the Fund mainly as an adviser, not an emergency lender. Risks remain, such as an oil price shock, geopolitical disruption, a sharp halt in capital inflows or fiscal slippage. The piece concludes that the real test is whether this programme can be the last one.