Middle East crude oil exports exceed pre-war levels but tanker attacks increase

Business Recorder reported that Middle East crude shipments rose past their pre-war volumes on four of the final seven days of September, citing ship-tracking data from Kpler. Flows exceeded that benchmark on September 24 and again from September 27 to 29, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day. Before the US-Israeli conflict with Iran erupted, the regional average stood at 18 million bpd from March 2025 through February 2026.

Attacks on tankers nevertheless persisted around the Strait of Hormuz, with Marisks counting at least seven incidents in a report issued on Saturday. A very large crude carrier, the Kazimah III, was hit by an unidentified projectile on October 1, sparking a fire on board, but all crew were safely evacuated. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has logged at least one attack per day in the Strait or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.

Marisks described the threat to merchant ships as both elevated and harder to predict, pointing to a sharp jump in traffic through the waterway. The firm suggested recent incidents may not reflect deliberate targeting of particular vessels, and that Iranian forces could instead be firing missiles into a set zone where weapons lock onto radar signatures. Simply being inside that zone at the relevant time might itself be the main risk, the firm added.