E&P sector may achieve 44pc profit growth in 1QFY27 YoY

Topline Research projects that listed exploration and production companies will post a 44 percent rise in earnings in the first quarter of FY27 compared with a year earlier. The research house credits the gain to firmer global crude rates and higher output, with Arab Light averaging USD 90 per barrel during the period. Quarter-on-quarter, however, profit is seen falling 46 percent, largely because of a Rs54.9 billion tax reversal booked in 4QFY26 after a Federal Constitutional Court ruling of January 27, 2026.

According to Topline Research, national oil output averaged 69,500 barrels per day, up 12 percent year on year, while gas output rose 7 percent to 2,989 mmcfd. Fewer cargoes of imported LNG lifted demand for domestic gas, while OGRA adjusted wellhead pricing for certain fields by about 8-10 percent for the first half of FY27. Operating costs across the sector are forecast to climb 26 percent year on year, with only one dry well reported this quarter, against three in 4QFY26.

OGDC is estimated at Rs12.91 per share, up 45 percent year on year, with a Rs5 cash dividend expected. PPL is estimated at Rs10.81 per share, but exploration costs are expected to reach Rs3 billion because of the dry well. MARI is projected to earn Rs16.73 per share, while POL is estimated at Rs35.20 per share, an 84 percent annual rise.