Pakistan Achieved Economic Stability. Now Government Must Deliver Growth

Mettis Global published a commentary by economic analyst Shahid Anwar, who argues that Pakistan has achieved economic stability but must now turn it into growth. On September 25, the State Bank held reserves of $21.44 billion, and provisional GDP growth for FY2025-26 came in at 3.70 percent. The writer says the next phase should focus on investment, productivity, exports and jobs.

Power costs are a central concern, with circular debt reaching Rs1.675 trillion at the end of June 2026, above the programme target. Anwar argues that factories need reliable electricity at lower and more predictable prices. He also points to FBR collections of about Rs3.08 trillion in the first quarter of FY2026-27, around Rs27 billion above the quarterly target.

Exports rose 10.84 percent to $8.42 billion in July-September 2026, but imports grew faster and widened the quarterly trade deficit to $10.79 billion. Anwar concludes that policy certainty, timely export refunds and a broader tax base are needed to move from stability to lasting growth. CPI inflation stood at 10.3 percent in September 2026, keeping pressure on household budgets.