WTO hikes global trade growth forecast, names Pakistan among nations gaining from disruptions amid ME conflict

Dawn reported that the World Trade Organisation has lifted its forecast for global merchandise trade volume growth to 3.9 per cent in 2026 and 4.1 per cent in 2027. Earlier estimates of 1.9 per cent and 2.6 per cent, made when the US-Iran conflict began in March, have been revised upward. Despite the conflict, the global economy has held up, the Geneva-based body said, helped by AI-linked capital spending and extra fuel and fertiliser supplies from outside the Middle East.

Pakistan is among economies gaining from the redirection of shipping, as its sea freight transport service exports climbed 73 per cent during the first half of 2026, compared with a year earlier. Vessel calls at Karachi's major container terminals were 14 per cent higher in July than a year earlier, and computer services exports grew 23 per cent in the second quarter. Rerouted vessels have strained South Asian capacity, and in July the Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) introduced a $500 per container congestion surcharge on cargo from Northern Europe bound for India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

The WTO cut its 2026 commercial services trade growth forecast to 3.3 per cent from 4.8 per cent, citing weaker travel and tourism across the Middle East. Its risks include the wide spread between crude and refined fuel prices, which is eroding purchasing power, and a possible slowdown in AI investment.