WTO hikes 2026 trade growth forecast on AI boom

According to Business Recorder, the World Trade Organization has raised its 2026 forecast for growth in merchandise trade volumes to 3.9 percent from 1.9 percent in March. The Geneva body now expects trade to expand 4.1 percent in 2027, against 2.6 percent projected seven months earlier. It also put world GDP growth at 2.6 percent for this year and 2.9 percent for 2027.

Shipments of chips, servers and other AI-essential equipment rose 67 percent in the opening six months of 2026, accounting for 47 percent of the expansion in global merchandise trade. The WTO credited the upgrade largely to outlays on chips, data centres and digital networks, which increased imports of goods needed for AI. It also said supply chains adjusted to energy, fertiliser and transport disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran war, while economies beyond the area stayed resilient.

The organisation stressed, however, that the gains were uneven, with services commerce and certain areas feeling greater strain from the conflict. WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said a rules-based system helps economies keep essential products moving, yet some nations have absorbed more of the shock and not everyone can tap AI opportunities. Spending on AI infrastructure worldwide is forecast to climb by a minimum of 30 percent in 2026, and by a further 10 to 20 percent next year.