IMF raises Pakistan FY27 inflation forecast to 9.9%, growth seen at 3.5%

The International Monetary Fund now expects Pakistan's average inflation to reach 9.9% in FY27, according to its World Economic Outlook published on October 13, 2026 and reported by Mettis Global. That compares with an estimated 7.1% in FY26 and 4.5% in FY25. The Fund also sees real GDP expanding 3.5% next year, slightly slower than the 3.6% projected for FY26.

Domestic data showed consumer price inflation at 10.3% year-on-year in September, down from 11.1% in August but still far above the 5.8% of a year earlier. The wholesale index climbed 13.3% in September, while the sensitive price index rose 8.4%. The IMF, in its staff-level agreement on the Extended Fund Facility, observed that headline inflation peaked in May while core inflation remained contained.

The Fund expects the current account to slip from a 0.5% of GDP surplus in FY25 to balance in FY26 and a 1.0% of GDP deficit in FY27. Unemployment is projected to decline from 7.1% to 6.5% by FY27. Risks flagged include regional tensions, energy price swings, tighter global financing and disrupted trade flows.