Kevin Warsh offers no clues on Fed’s next rate decision

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh gave no signal on whether the US central bank would lift borrowing costs again at its October 27-28 meeting, according to Mettis Global. The remarks came during a Friday discussion in Bangkok with IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva, even though September price growth exceeded expectations. Warsh neither backed nor challenged colleagues who have said the Fed sees no need to rush further tightening.

Warsh declined to preview the Fed's actions at its remaining sessions this year, and he described the moment as a fresh stage for the institution. He has chosen to limit official guidance, preferring that investors react to economic conditions instead of policymakers' hints. In September the Fed raised its policy range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4%, marking the first hike in three years.

Warsh said artificial intelligence was the most significant development for the world economy during his lifetime. He argued that heavier AI outlays are currently boosting overall demand and driving prices higher in the short run, though over time the technology could expand output without necessarily pushing prices up. Oil has moved up from roughly $70 a barrel before the Iran war to about $105 currently, and the IMF projects worldwide expansion of 3.1% in 2026, versus 3.5% a year earlier.