Indian rupee likely pinned near 95 as RBI defence counters oil headwinds

According to Business Recorder, the Indian rupee is likely to face pressure from high oil prices when trading opens on Monday, though dollar sales by the central bank are expected to keep it near 95 per dollar. Traders expect the currency to open within a 94.92 to 94.98 band, after it settled at 94.96 on Friday. The rupee has hovered around the 95 mark in recent sessions, briefly strengthening past it before struggling to hold that level.

A currency trader at a bank suggested that the Reserve Bank of India may be selling dollars to limit declines below that level, making it an important near-term support. Last week the rupee recorded its strongest weekly performance in almost four years, helped by RBI measures and repeated spot-market dollar sales. Foreign exchange reserves have meanwhile dropped by nearly $60 billion from their early September peak, to $726 billion as of October 9.

Oil remains the main strain on the currency, as Brent crude touched above $110 a barrel on Friday, the first such level since May. On Monday Brent eased to roughly $108 after US President Donald Trump set aside fresh sanctions and tariffs on Russian goods, a step that could open the way for more Russian fuel exports. Analysts broadly agree that RBI support can only go so far unless oil prices fall.