Bank of Korea warns country's chip exports could fall by up to $100 billion if AI spending slows

South Korea’s central bank estimates that semiconductor exports could be $50 billion to $100 billion below earlier forecasts next year if major US technology companies reduce AI investment. Business Recorder reported that the Bank of Korea examined this downside case in a written response to lawmaker Ahn Do-geol, including an assumed 10% decline in Korean chip prices.

In that scenario, the export weakness would reduce next year’s GDP growth by about 0.4 percentage point and push the current account surplus below the bank’s original $430 billion projection for 2027. Chips make up about half of South Korea’s exports, while planned capital spending by Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle is forecast to rise from $40 billion last year to $80 billion this year and $110 billion next year. The bank said uncertainty remains around AI demand and the memory-chip cycle.