Global rice prices projected to rise 12% in 2027: World Bank

The World Bank expects its benchmark Thai rice price to climb 11.6% to $500 per tonne in 2027, following a forecast 9.8% increase to $448 in 2026. In its October 2026 outlook, the bank attributes the anticipated rise to weather disruption linked to El Niño in major Asian producing countries.

Global rice output is forecast to contract 2% in the 2026-27 season, the first yearly decline in a decade, while the World Bank has lifted its 2027 price estimate by 21% from its April forecast. Prices rose 6% in the third quarter of 2026 against the previous quarter, and the report says export restrictions or worse-than-expected weather could intensify pressure. It also projects global food commodity prices up 10% in 2026 and a further 7% in 2027.