Pakistan's inflation projected at 9.5% to 10.5% in October

Pakistan’s Finance Division expects consumer inflation to land between 9.5% and 10.5% in October 2026, according to its latest economic outlook. Prices had risen 10.3% year over year in September, easing from 11.1% in August but remaining above the 5.8% recorded a year earlier. The July-September average was 10.2%, compared with 4.3% in the same months of FY2026.

The report points to energy costs and geopolitical tensions as risks, while improved farm supplies could help temper food prices. Transport costs climbed 27.4% in September and household utility-related prices were up 12.4%. The State Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee had raised its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 12%, effective October 27, citing inflation concerns tied to global energy prices and the Middle East conflict.