Oil market not pricing in peace, but sees no third US-Iran round

Brent was near $90 a barrel on November 13 after losing almost 25% in ten days, but traders were not treating the retreat as evidence of an imminent US-Iran peace deal. Mettis Global, citing Bloomberg, said the market appears caught between renewed conflict and an agreement that could push prices substantially lower, while traders see little immediate prospect of another clash.

Supply conditions have eased: Middle Eastern crude exports excluding Iran have returned to above 90% of pre-war volumes, and some importing nations have begun replenishing reserves. Fuel products remain tighter, with Gulf shipments at roughly 60% of earlier levels, while tanker availability and routes continue to affect trade. A deal could bring Iranian supply back; before the war, Iran shipped over 2.5mn barrels daily in crude and refined products, whereas current exports are estimated at no more than 300,000 barrels a day. The UAE hopes to begin using another Hormuz bypass pipeline by April.