World oil market is returning to surplus as Gulf exports recover, IEA says

The International Energy Agency now expects global oil production to exceed consumption in the fourth quarter, reversing its earlier projection of a shortfall. Its monthly assessment puts average supply at 105 million barrels per day, 1.7 million bpd above anticipated demand, as Gulf exports recover more quickly than consumption grows despite attacks on shipping.

The agency also said 71 million barrels from members’ emergency stock release are due to reach markets by February’s close, including 15 million barrels of diesel. It forecasts 2026 oil demand at 102.3 million bpd, down 2.7 million bpd for the year, while Brent slipped 0.1% to $95.71 after the report. For 2027, the IEA estimates an excess of about 3.8 million bpd, although it does not expect energy markets to regain pre-war conditions that year.