World oil market is returning to surplus as Gulf exports recover

The International Energy Agency now expects oil production to exceed consumption in the final quarter of 2026, reversing its earlier outlook for a shortfall. Its monthly assessment puts average supply at 105 million barrels a day, around 1.7 million barrels daily above projected demand, as exports from the Gulf recover.

The agency also said member countries will release another 71 million barrels from emergency stocks through February, including 15 million barrels of diesel intended to ease tight supplies. Separately, OPEC reported that OPEC+ crude output reached 41.23 million barrels per day in October, about 2.04 million above September and equal to 97 percent of February’s pre-war level. Business Recorder reported that exports are rebuilding despite continuing threats to shipping.