Oil falls for a fourth day on expectations for lower risk of Iran war escalation

Oil prices extended their decline for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday as traders considered whether US midterm election results could limit the chance of further military escalation involving Iran. At 0426 GMT, Brent was down 80 cents, or 0.85%, at $93.82 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate lost $1.2, or 1.36%, to $86.92.

Both benchmarks had fallen by more than 8% in the previous session, reaching their lowest settlements since August 31. Analysts cited in The Express Tribune said renewed Gulf supply had returned the market to surplus, estimated by JPMorgan at 1.1 million barrels per day in September and 1.4 million in October. The outlook remains uncertain: Eurasia Group lowered its estimate for renewed US strikes to 60% from 65%, but also reduced the chance of a deal to 10% from 20%.